Suspect Prospects.

Recently I was at the library and ran across a copy of the 2001 Baseball Prospectus. The most interesting section I found was the Top 40 prospect list. The list started with Ryan Anderson and included such luminaries as Jose Ortiz, Antonio Perez, and Luis Rivas. Left off the list were Josh Beckett, Milton Bradley, and Aubrey Huff. Albert Pujols holds the lofty and prestigous 23rd spot on the list.
Reading this made me realize that while I often feel all warm and fuzzy while looking at the West Tenn stats page, most of those guys will be no more than replacement players. In fact predicting which players will have solid careers is at best little more than an educated guess. I write and read posts every day that suggest trading various players in the Cubs system and I worry about giving up too much "God No! Not Cedeno and Nolasco for Austen Kearns." Yet I think five years ago that I might have said "God No! Not Ruben Quevedo and Bobby Hill for Ryan Klesko."